Technology Strategy Pattern 学习笔记2-Creating the Strategy-World Context

Creating the Strategy-World Context

1 PESTEL

1.1 从6个方案看外部

1.2 参考URL

1.3 Creating the PESTEL

PESTEL是high level的
First you do the research, and then you write it into a short analysis paper.
Next, you put those points into slides for your Strategy Deck
PESTEL should go in the appendix to support the technology recommendations and claims you make in the body of the deck
1.4 Researching for PESTEL
首先是寻找外部资料
PESTEL 每年更新一次+在重大事件后更新
1.5 Applying the PESTEL
Gathering the data through research while doing your best to
not mix your biases and assumptions with it.
Stating your insights
Making local recommendations based on your insights. These
will roll up together to form your business strategy.
如果企业由商业战略(BUSINESS STRATEGY), 需要检查PESTEL和战略的匹配度和一致性

2.1 参考URL
https://baike.baidu.com/item/%E6%83%85%E6%99%AF%E8%A7%84%E5%88%92/9535938
2.2 Steps for Scenario Planning

Review all the trends out in the world that could affect your company’s business. You can get this from your PESTEL.
Consider how different trends might disrupt, reroute, or otherwise hurt your business.
Create a list of the trends with your estimation of the impact
Build the scenarios together as a list
- Don’t allow yourselves to succumb（屈服） to group think, or to avoid alternatives that are plausible（貌似有理）.
- 不能委托给低级人员
Assess the impact of each scenario. Develop alternate paths for each as in a Logic Tree

2.3 穷人版情景规划

bringing in experts from various parts of the business and technology to create and present their own short deck on their vision of the future.
Look for the weak but plausible（在这本书里含义是合理） signals you hear from them. Then use inductive reasoning to forecast each of the weak signal’s impacts.

2.4 You’re not picking your favorite, or one that you want to see happen. You’re forecasting the future

3.1 示意图
在这里插入图片描述

注意不同圈定范围，preferred和probably、plausible是有重叠，但不一致

3.2 possible futures

3.3 plausible

3.4 preferred future

3.5 probable outcomes

3.6 可以使用回溯-backcasting 来深度评估/思考preferred及probable

3.7 可以使用SWOT和five forces pattern 来建立futures funnel

4.1 steps

With your architecture, strategy, and product teams together,
create a simple vision of the Beautiful Future.
Hypothesize the immediately prior necessary state-antecedent（来路）
you repeat the process to hypothesize the antecedent to that antecedent and so on, until you work your way back to the current state.
Next, consider the consequent. A basic statement in propositional logic has three parts: the hypothesis, the consequent, and the logical connector between the two
假设到来路之间要怎么连接、实现